OSSOS. XXVII. Population Estimates for Theoretically Stable Centaurs between Uranus and Neptune

Abstract

We calculate the upper bounds of the population of theoretically stable Centaur orbits between Uranus and Neptune. These small bodies are on low-eccentricity, low-inclination orbits in two specific bands of semimajor axis, centered at ∼24.6 and ∼25.6 au. They exhibit unusually long Gyr-stable lifetimes in previously published numerical integrations, orders of magnitude longer than that of a typical Centaur. Despite the increased breadth and depth of recent Solar System surveys, no such objects have been found. Using the Outer Solar System Origins Survey simulator to calculate the detection efficiency for these objects in an ensemble of fully characterized surveys, we determine that a population of 72 stable Centaurs with absolute magnitude H _r ≤ 10 (95% confidence upper limit) could remain undetected. The upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time will be able to detect this entire intrinsic population, due to its complete coverage of the ecliptic plane. If detected, these objects will be interesting dynamically accessible mission targets—especially as comparison of the stable Centaur orbital phase space to the outcomes of several modern planetary migration simulations suggests that these objects could be close to primordial in nature.

Keywords

• Centaur group
• Astrostatistics
• Surveys
• Orbits
• Trans-Neptunian objects
• Planetary migration