Impact of climate change on spatiotemporal variations in the vegetation cover and hydrology of district Nowshera

Abstract

This research seeks to validate climate change in the district of Nowshera, as well as its impact on NDVI (vegetation) and hydrological events such as monsoon rains. Modified Mann-Kendall and Sen's statistics were used to examine climate parameters. Using climate factors and MODIS NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data, regression analysis was used to study a 20-year (2001–2020) spatiotemporal climate-vegetation relationship. Landsat 5 and 7 NDWI (Normalized Difference Water Index) data, as well as SRTM DEM (Digital Elevation Model) data, were used to map extreme weather events such as floods caused by climate change. For mapping and data processing, ArcGIS and R tools were used. The findings revealed significant trends in climate parameters, which has led to climate change in the area, affecting NDVI and water cycles. The NDVI showed a generally good trend, however some places were damaged. Monsoon rain patterns and rates have been substantially disrupted, resulting in flash and fluvial floods. The risk of future floods owing to the Kabul and Indus rivers was shown through watershed delineation, which is compounded by climate change and anthropogenic activities. It is advised that government officials and policymakers establish climate change mitigation plans for regional sustainable development and vegetation restoration. HIGHLIGHTS Temporal trends of climatic factors and their impact on spatiotemporal variation in NDVI were investigated via relevant statistics in R.; Vegetation varied both in space and time significantly with an overall positive trend.; Floods among the extreme events wreaked havoc in the area as exacerbated by human activities besides climate change.; Stakeholders are being urged to design mitigation measures and support further research.;

Keywords

• climate change
• flood
• ndvi
• ndwi
• spatiotemporal variations
• vegetation