Modelling the effect of Covid-19 mortality on the economy of Nigeria

Abstract

Objectives: This paper is aimed at modelling the effect of COVID-19 mortality per population (CMP), a proxy for COVID-19 on the Gross Domestics Product (GDP) per capita per COVID-19 cases (RGDPC), a proxy for the economic wellbeing of a nation. Methods: Nine models divided into three groups (Gaussian polynomial, other non-linear, and Gamma generalized polynomial models) were fitted for RGDPC data on CMP, collected from 1st June to 31st December 2020. Results: The result showed that the gamma cubic model was selected as the best model out of the 9 competing models to predict the economic wellbeing of Nigeria. Predictions were made for the whole day in the year 2021. Conclusion: It is therefore concluded that there is a non-linear relationship between COVID-19 mortality and the economic wellbeing of Nigerians. Thus, COVID-19 mortality has an adverse effect on the wellbeing of Nigerians. The economic wellbeing of Nigerians can be improved if COVID-19 mortality is stopped.

Keywords

• COVID-19 mortality
• Economic wellbeing
• GDP per capita
• Generalized linear models
• Polynomial models