Polynomial approximations of the Normal toWeibull Distribution transformation

Abstract

Some of the tools that are generally employed in power system analysis need to use approaches based on statistical distributions for simulating the cumulative behavior of the different system devices. For example, the probabilistic load flow. The presence of wind farms in power systems has increased the use of Weibull and Rayleigh distributions among them. Not only the distributions themselves, but also satisfying certain constraints such as correlation between series of data or even autocorrelation can be of importance in the simulation. Correlated Weibull or Rayleigh distributions can be obtained by transforming correlated Normal distributions, and it can be observed that certain statistical values such as the means and the standard deviations tend to be retained when operating such transformations, although why this happens is not evident. The objective of this paper is to analyse the consequences of using such transformations. The methodology consists of comparing the results obtained by means of a direct transformation and those obtained by means of approximations based on the use of first and second degree polynomials. Simulations have been carried out with series of data which can be interpreted as wind speeds. The use of polynomial approximations gives accurate results in comparison with direct transformations and provides an approach that helps explain why the statistical values are retained during the transformations.

Keywords

• Normal
• Weibull
• Rayleigh distributions
• correlation
• autocorrelation
• polynomial approximation