On estimating the number of people with known HIV positive status

Abstract

Abstract Objective In 2014, the Joint United Nations Program on HIV and AIDS (UNAIDS) and partners set the ‘90-90-90 targets’. Many countries are facing the challenge of estimating the first 90. Our objective was to propose an alternative modelling procedure, and to discuss its usefulness for taking into account duplication. Results For deduplication, we identified two important ingredients: the probability for an HIV+ person of being re-tested during the period and average number of HIV+ tests. Other adjusted factors included: the false positive probability; the death and emigration probabilities. The uncertainty of the adjusted estimate was assessed using the plausibility bounds and sensitivity analysis. The proposed method was applied to Cameroon for the period 1987–2016. Of the 560,000 people living with HIV estimated from UNAIDS in 2016; 504,000 out to know their status. The model estimates that 380,464 [379,257, 381,674] know their status (75.5%); thus 179,536 who do not know their status should be sought through the intensification of testing. These results were subsequently used for constructing the full 2016 Cameroon HIV cascade for identifying programmatic gap, prioritizing the resources, and guiding the strategies of the 2018–2022 National Strategy Plan and funding request.

Keywords

• 90-90-90 target
• Average number of HIV+ tests
• HIV cascade
• Retesting probability