Identification of Effective Factors on the Future of the Standardization System for Production and Description of Scenarios

Abstract

Objective: The purpose of this study is to identify the factors affecting the future of Iran's standardization system in the field of production technology and identify and describe possible scenarios. Methods: Scenario is one of the methods of future-estimation study. In this research, using the cross-impact analysis method, an attempt was made to predict the probability of the effect of an event on another event. And then, the MICMAC software was used to perform the computation of such complex cross-sectional analysis matrix. Results: To this end, firstly, based on library studies and experts’ opinion, a list of the most important factors and variables that the affect the production standardization system was provided, and then the selected factors were identified through a questionnaire. On the next stage, the experts’ opinions were analyzed through designing a questionnaire for mutual effect and 9 factors were identified among the 24 listed factors as the final key factors (risk). Moreover, by designing an uncertainty questionnaire, attempts were made to determine the uncertainties and significance of each of these nine factors. Based on the results and calculations carried out on the results of this questionnaire, four future scenarios of the standardization system in the field of production technology were identified and ultimately described by the panel of experts in these scenarios. Conclusion: Based on the results, it was found that the two uncertainties of "production policies for creating a competitive environment in the industry" and "the possibility of providing modern equipment and machinery" have the highest coefficients and form the axes of the four scenarios derived from this study.

Keywords

• standardization
• Production
• Technology
• Scenario planning
• Future study