Perubahan dan Prediksi Penggunaan Lahan Menggunakan Markov – Cellular Automata di Kota Batu

Abstract

Along with the development of Batu City as a tourist city, it is feared that there will be an increase in land use conversion from apple orchards and other agricultural land into residential and tourism land. The rate of land use change must be controlled to maintain environment sustainability. One of the effort is studying the change that occurred in the past few years. The purpose of this study were to observe land use change pattern that occured in 2006, 2012, and 2018, and to predict the land use at 2030 in Batu City. Land use prediction was evaluated with Markov – Cellular Automata models. The analysis showed that forest area decreased up to 5% and the built area increased up to 5.2% from 2006 to 2018. Prediction of land use in 2030 showed that there will be a decrease in forest, agriculture, and bareland areas, and an increase in shrubs and built areas. Agricultural land needs to be directed to be protected or conserved, while shrubs and open land need to be directed into potential land for apple orchards development in Batu City.

Keywords

• agricultural land, apple orchards, land use change pattern, tourist city