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The Road to Partisan Independence: An Extension and Empirical Test of the “Running Tally” Approach in Latin America

Colombia Internacional. 2018;96:3-27 DOI 10.7440/colombiaint96.2018.01

 

Journal Homepage

Journal Title: Colombia Internacional

ISSN: 0121-5612 (Print); 1900-6004 (Online)

Publisher: Universidad de los Andes

Society/Institution: Universidad de los Andes, Departamento de Ciencia Política

LCC Subject Category: Political science: International relations | Political science: Political science (General)

Country of publisher: Colombia

Language of fulltext: Spanish, Portuguese, English

Full-text formats available: PDF, HTML

 

AUTHORS


Benjamín Temkin Yedwab (Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales (México))

Gerardo Isaac Cisneros Yescas (Vanderbilt University (Estados Unidos))

EDITORIAL INFORMATION

Double blind peer review

Editorial Board

Instructions for authors

Time From Submission to Publication: 52 weeks

 

Abstract | Full Text

This article presents an analytical extension to Fiorina’s “running tally” approach to party identification through empirical testing using Latin American data, in order to include partisan independence as a possible outcome of negative retrospective evaluations of governmental performance. Voters who evaluate government performance more negatively have a higher propensity to not identify with any political party. An instrumental probit model shows that, when controlling for the possible inverse causality between partisan independence and a negative assessment of government performance, the latter variable provides the strongest prediction of the lack of partisan identification in comparison with sociological, cultural, modernization and political-institutional variables. A theoretical explanation is offered based on the “principal-agent” model.