Multimodal Trajectory Prediction for Diverse Vehicle Types in Autonomous Driving with Heterogeneous Data and Physical Constraints

Abstract

The accurate prediction of vehicle behavior is crucial for autonomous driving systems, impacting their safety and efficiency in complex urban environments. To address the challenge of multi-agent trajectory prediction, we propose a novel model integrating multiple input modalities, including historical trajectories, map data, vehicle features, and interaction information. Our approach employs a Conditional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE) framework with a decoder that predicts control actions using the Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) and then converts these actions into dynamically feasible trajectories through a bicycle model. Evaluated on the nuScenes dataset, the model achieves great performance across key metrics, including minADE5 of 1.26 and minFDE5 of 2.85, demonstrating robust performance across various vehicle types and prediction horizons. These results indicate that integrating multiple data sources, physical models, and probabilistic methods significantly improves trajectory prediction accuracy and reliability for autonomous driving. Our approach generates diverse yet realistic predictions, capturing the multimodal nature of future outcomes while adhering to Physical Constraints and vehicle dynamics.

Keywords

• multi-agent trajectory prediction
• multimodal learning
• Conditional Variational Autoencoder
• Gaussian Mixture Model
• autonomous driving