ELFNet: An Effective Electricity Load Forecasting Model Based on a Deep Convolutional Neural Network with a Double-Attention Mechanism

Abstract

Forecasting energy demand is critical to ensure the steady operation of the power system. However, present approaches to estimating power load are still unsatisfactory in terms of accuracy, precision, and efficiency. In this paper, we propose a novel method, named ELFNet, for estimating short-term electricity consumption, based on the deep convolutional neural network model with a double-attention mechanism. The Gramian Angular Field method is utilized to convert electrical load time series into 2D image data for input into the proposed model. The prediction accuracy is greatly improved through the use of a convolutional neural network to extract the intrinsic characteristics from the input data, along with channel attention and spatial attention modules, to enhance the crucial features and suppress the irrelevant ones. The present ELFNet method is compared to several classic deep learning networks across different prediction horizons using publicly available data on real power demands from the Belgian grid firm Elia. The results show that the suggested approach is competitive and effective for short-term power load forecasting.

Keywords

• electricity load forecasting
• deep convolutional neural network
• channel attention
• spatial attention
• Gramian angular field