Definition of great time for hiring of housing finance using Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

Statistical data show that housing financing has been widely demanded as an option for the purchase of real estate, and that the level of defaults and properties auctioned have also seen significant increases in recent years. These data show that the decision to purchase the financed home is not always carried out in a planned manner, impacting on the high costs and difficulty of honoring the financial commitments made by the borrower. In this context, the objective of this research is to develop a simulation tool, using Monte Carlo simulation techniques, to help consumers make decisions regarding long-term financing in the acquisition. A large number of simulations, using a real-case study, were carried out to verify the validity of the proposed model, allowing to evaluate the behavior of debt costs. The results, obtained in this research, indicate that the cost of debt can be reduced by more than 40% if the requester chooses to postpone the financing for a few years in order to obtain a greater financial amount to be given as input, reducing the outstanding balance and the financing period.

Keywords

• custo da dívida
• financiamento habitacional
• simulação de monte carlo