Comparative Assessment of Wildland Fire Rate of Spread Models: Effects of Wind Velocity

Abstract

Wildland fire rate of spread prediction models are important tools for the effective coordination of resident evacuation and fire suppression efforts. A comparative assessment of ten empirical and semi-empirical rate of spread prediction models is performed, using a selection of 203 laboratory experiments of surface spreading fires; special emphasis is given to the effects of external wind velocity. Five of the evaluated models have been developed using measurements obtained in laboratory-scale tests; these models are combined with two supplementary sub-models that account for the effects of wind. In addition, a selection of five empirical models that have been developed using large-scale field tests are also assessed. The performance of the ten prediction models is evaluated, both qualitatively and quantitatively, by employing a range of statistical error metrics. The laboratory-developed models are found to exhibit high sensitivity on low fuel load values, when no external wind is present, as well as on low packing ratios and high wind velocity values. The field-developed models exhibit significant discrepancies against the experimental data, due to the use of specific parameters regarding fuel type, scale and wind velocity.

Keywords

• wildland fires
• rate of spread
• wind
• validation study