From data to decisions: evaluating flood vulnerability in the Sindh watershed through Analytical Hierarchy Process

Abstract

Abstract Floods are recurrent global catastrophes causing substantial disruptions to human life, extensive land degradation, and economic losses. This study aims to identify flood-triggering watershed features and employ a Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) approach based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) model to delineate flood-prone zones. Weights for various flood-influencing factors (slope, rainfall, drainage density, land-use/land-cover, geology, elevation, and soil) were derived using a 7 × 7 AHP decision matrix, reflecting their relative importance. A Consistency Ratio (CR) of 0.089 (within acceptable limits) confirms the validity of the assigned weights. The analysis identified approximately 128.51 km2 as highly vulnerable to flooding, particularly encompassing the entire stretch of riverbanks within the watershed. Historically, snow avalanches and flash floods have been the primary water-related disasters in the region, posing significant threats to critical infrastructure. In this context, this model-based approach facilitates the proactive identification of susceptible areas, thereby promoting improved flood risk mitigation and response strategies.

Keywords

• Floods
• Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)
• Hazard mitigation
• Himalayas