A study of the relation between traffic accidents and election posters

Abstract

Inattention in traffic is a risk factor for the occurrence of accidents. Elements surrounding traffic could potentially be a safety risk for road users. This study investigates the relation between election posters and traffic accidents using a seasonal autoregressive-moving-average model with exogeneous variables (seasonal ARMAX) correcting for variations in meteorological conditions and general traffic volume indicated through public holidays. Danish traffic accident micro data are used to construct a time series for daily number of accidents in city zones adjusted for probable known accident causes, namely drunk driving, narcotics, drivers deemed unfit to drive, and accidents related to low visibility. Model parameters are determined from Maximum Likelihood estimation on the period from 1 January 1997 to 15 December 2009 with an indicator for general election periods. The presence of general election posters is associated with an increased risk of traffic accidents (p = 0.003), when correcting for meteorological variables and public school holidays. While a causal relation between traffic accidents and the presence of election posters cannot be concluded from the analysis, we find distraction from election posters to be the most likely explanation for the associated increase in traffic accidents. On average, the model indicates that 1.18 additional daily accidents occur for general elections in Denmark. In total, that amounts to 127 additional accidents for the investigated period of time. This study shows that such sudden changes in traffic surroundings are significantly related to increased safety risks which could lead to a better discussion of relevant traffic legislation.

Keywords

• ARMAX
• election posters
• risk assessment
• time series analysis
• Traffic accidents