Detection of hydropower change points under future climate conditions based on technical hydropower potential changes in Asia

Abstract

Study region: Asia. Study focus: Hydropower capacity is expected to increase in Asia due to plentiful potential and many investors. Although climate change studies of hydropower have been implemented, most studies have focused on the quantity of change rather than change points. A change point is the time when the plant capacity designed in the past is no longer valid due to climate change, and the efficiency or amount of hydropower can be significantly reduced. Previous studies were constrained to certain stations due to a lack of data. In this study, a method for exploring the change points based on the technical hydropower potential (THP) is proposed with simple data, and the future change points of hydropower in Asia are identified. New hydrological insight for the region: In this study, an approach for detecting the change points of hydropower due to climate change is proposed, and the change points in the Asia are identified. One novelty is the proposed approach is only required discharge and elevation to detect the points. Another novelty is the analysis of THP changes based on different hydropower capacities considering climate change. They have never been discussed and can be utilized for resource expansion and the management of installed plants. Furthermore, the change points are new findings since it has never been reported for most Asia due to limited data availability.

Keywords

• Climate change
• Technical hydropower potential
• Change points
• Asia region