Patterns and determinants of business cycle synchronization in the enlarged European Economic and Monetary Union

Abstract

This paper provides empirical evidence about the degree of business cycle synchronization between the euro area countries and eight new European Union member states. We analyze the direct and indirect effects of similarity of economic structures and trade intensity on the co-movement of fluctuations of economic activity across these countries and find that bilateral similarity of economic structures and trade intensity were positively and significantly associated with business cycle correlations. This result is robust to different estimation techniques. Similarity of economic structures had an additional indirect positive effect on business cycle synchronization via its positive effect on trade intensity. The bilateral business cycle correlations are found to be endogenous with respect to bilateral similarity of economic structures and bilateral trade intensity suggesting that the new European Union countries will better satisfy the Optimum Currency Area criteria after the adoption of the euro.

Keywords

• European Economic and Monetary Union
• optimum currency area
• international transmission of business cycles