Distribution area changes of Cenchrus spinifex in China under climate change scenarios

Abstract

Cenchrus spinifex is one of the invasive plant species in China, which seriously affects the animal husbandry and ecological environment in China. In order to predict the change of suitable distribution area of C. spinifex under future climate change scenarios, based on the MaxEnt model, this study used 103 geographical distribution data of C. spinifex and 19 climatic and environmental factors to analyze and predict the suitable distribution area of C. spinifex in China under two climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in the 2050s and 2070s. The results were as follows: (1) The current suitable distribution area of C. spinifex occupied 4.00% of the study area, which was mainly distributed in Northeast China borderline by Inner Mongolia, Jilin and Liaoning. (2) Under the two future climate change scenarios, the suitable distribution areas for each grade of C. spinifex will expand to a certain extent compared with the current, and the medium suitable areas will expand the most, reaching 38.26%. (3) Annual mean temperature, standard deviation of seasonal temperature variation, and precipitation in the wettest season were the main climatic factors affecting the distribution of C. spinifex. (4) In the future, the distribution centroid of C. spinifex will generally move westward. The above results indicate that the current invaded areas of C. spinifex in China are far smaller than the potential invaded areas, and it may further spread to the arid and semi-arid regions in China. In order to prevent the harm caused by the widespread spread of C. spinifex in northern China, we need to focus on its preventive measures and invasion situation in the future. The results of this study provide important theoretical basis and control methods for the prevention and control of invasive plants in China.

Keywords

• cenchrus spinifex
• climate change
• maxent model
• distribution prediction
• distribution centroid