Time and Space Evolution and Network Relationship of Terrorism in Southeast Asia

Abstract

Since 2000, terrorism in Southeast Asia has developed rapidly via numerous terrorist organizations. As the regional anti-terrorism situation has become increasingly severe, regional security has faced serious challenges. The research is based on the research data of the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), using geospatial statistical methods to visualize the spatial variation terrorist activities in Southeast Asia from 2000 to 2018, and to analyze the characteristics of the temporal and spatial research of terrorist activities in Southeast Asia. Social network analysis methods were used to analyze the internal and external social relations of terrorist organizations in Southeast Asia. This helped us to have a certain understanding of the development situation of terrorism in Southeast Asia and to provide a reference for Southeast Asian countries to formulate relevant counter-terrorism measures and strengthen regional counter-terrorism cooperation in the future. The study draws the following conclusions: (1) A total of 10,440 terrorist activities occurred in Southeast Asia from 2000 to 2018, showing a significant volatility growth over time, with obvious phase changes. According to the trend of terrorism in Southeast Asia and its spatial changes, this period can be divided into three stages, namely: rising volatility (2000-2010), rapid development (2011-2013), and turbulence and change stage (2014-2018). In terms of spatial distribution, Southeast Asian terrorism activities are highly concentrated, with significant agglomeration, showing a trend of diffusion and agglomeration. The agglomeration center has changed from a two-pole agglomeration center in 2000 to a three-level agglomeration center in 2018: the southern region of Thailand, the southern islands of the Philippines and the southern islands of the Philippines, and mountainous areas in western Myanmar. (2) There are many terrorist organizations in Southeast Asia, the types of which are complex. The members of the terrorist organization network are closely related. The terrorist organizations and the lone wolf type terrorism are related through intelligence, resource, and personnel exchanges. A huge cross-regional terrorist organization network has been established. In this network of terrorist organization relations, various terrorist organizations cooperate and act together, posing a serious threat to the anti-terrorism situation in Southeast Asia. In the 1990s, Southeast Asian terrorist organizations represented by JI, established the 4M activity network with a clear division of labor across many countries with the support of foreign organizations and used this activity network to raise funds, train personnel, and plan activities. (3) There are deep-seated reasons for the rapid rise of terrorism in Southeast Asia, not only the influence of social culture, political environment, and economic development within the region but also the intervention of terrorist forces outside the region.

Keywords

• terrorism
• terrorist organizations
• social network
• southeast asia