Multi-Scenario Projection of Future Precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang （Tibetan） Plateau Based on CMIP6 Model Assessment Results

Abstract

As a climate-sensitive region， precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang （Tibetan） Plateau significantly impacts the water cycle and the climate of East Asia.Therefore， it is important to study its changes.Precipitation is an important variable in the global hydrological cycle and one of the major climate systems affected by climate change.To investigate the ability of the global climate models to simulate precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang （Tibetan） Plateau and examine possible changes in future precipitation under the new model and scenarios， this paper uses the latest monthly precipitation data from the 31 climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 （CMIP6） and the CN05.1 precipitation observation data set provided by the National Climate Center to evaluate the ability of the CMIP6 model to simulate precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang （Tibetan） Plateau.Furthermore， better models are selected to project the future precipitation of the Qinghai-Xizang （Tibetan） Plateau under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway （SSP） scenarios.The results show that the model distribution of observed precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang （Tibetan） Plateau from 1995 to 2014 is characterized by a decrease from southeast to northwest and a summer precipitation concentration.Most of the models can simulate the precipitation distribution and seasonal trend， but almost all of them overestimate the precipitation phenomenon， and the average precipitation of multiple modes is 102% higher than that observed.In general， the latest model of CMIP6 has a poor ability to simulate precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang （Tibetan） Plateau， and the average relative deviation index of the model from the observation is 102%， indicating that most of the models are not satisfactory， and EC-Earth3-Veg-LR， MPI-ESM1-2-LR， EC-Earth3-Veg， and MRI-ESM2-0 are selected as the better modes after quantitative analysis of all the models， which can roughly reflect the precipitation characteristics of the Qinghai-Xizang （Tibetan） Plateau.Climate models show the slowest increase of precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang （Tibetan） Plateau under the SSP1-2.6 scenario and the fastest increase under SSP5-8.5.From SSP1-2.6 in the small radiative forcing scenario to SSP5-8.5 in the large scenario， the recent （from 2021 to 2040） precipitation increase on the plateau is difficult to find a large difference in each scenario， but there is a significant increase in the mid （from 2041 to 2060） and late （from 2081 to 2100） scenarios， indicating that carbon emission intensity has a small impact in the short term and a large impact in the long term.The future increase in precipitation mainly occurs in the area south of the Nianqing Tanggula Mountains， from a seasonal point of view， the summer increase is the largest， followed by spring and autumn， the smallest increase is in winter， so we should pay attention to the future summer and spring precipitation changes over the Qinghai-Xizang （Tibetan） Plateau and take coping measures.

Keywords

• qinghai-xizang （tibetan） plateau
• cmip6 models
• evaluation
• future projection