Statistical Modelling of the Energy Content of Municipal Solid Wastes in Northern Nigeria

Abstract

The ability to predict the quantity of energy to be produced is of paramount importance in every country. It would assist in setting up a waste management plan which will lead to a sustainable energy policy. This paper presents the development of a statistical linear regression mathematical model to predict the amount of energy contained in municipal solid wastes from the knowledge of such characteristics of the wastes as physical composition and/or moisture content. Major cities of Kano, Katsina, Dutse, Damaturu, Maiduguri, Bauchi, Birnin Kebbi, Gusau and Sokoto in Northern Nigeria, with high population densities and intense industrial activities constituted the area of study. Ten kilogram each, of the municipal solid waste was collected from the government designated refuse dumping sites in both highly dense populated low income areas and government residential areas, during the hottest months of February, March and April and during the rainy season in the month of August for three years. The waste material was prepared for the determination of its physical characteristics by sifting through. Proximate, ultimate analyses and calorific values were determined using ASTM analytical techniques and formulas from the literature. An empirical linear regression based mathematical model was developed using statistical methods and experimental data. Comparison between experimental and predicted values of the calorific values showed an agreement of about 70% with an average deviation of 5.03% while the standard deviation was found to be 5.29%.