Science of Tsunami Hazards (Jan 2008)
TSUNAMIGENIC SOURCES IN THE INDIAN OCEAN
Abstract
Based on an assessment of the repeat periods of great earthquakes from past seismicity, convergence rates and paleoseismological results, possible future source zones of tsunami generating earthquakes in the Indian Ocean (possible seismic gap areas) are identified along subduction zones and zones of compression. Central Sumatra, Java, Makran coast, Indus Delta, Kutch-Saurashtra, Bangladesh and southern Myanmar are identified as possible source zones of earthquakes in near future which might cause tsunamis in the Indian Ocean, and in particular, that could affect India. The Sunda Arc (covering Sumatra and Java) subduction zone, situated on the eastern side of the Indian Ocean, is one of the most active plate margins in the world that generates frequent great earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tsunamis. The Andaman- Nicobar group of islands is also a seismically active zone that generates frequent earthquakes. However, northern Sumatra and Andaman-Nicobar regions are assessed to be probably free from great earthquakes (M!8.0) for a few decades due to occurrence of 2004 Mw 9.3 and 2005 Mw 8.7 earthquakes. The Krakatau volcanic eruptions have caused large tsunamis in the past. This volcano and a few others situated on the ocean bed can cause large tsunamis in the future. List of past tsunamis generated due to earthquakes/volcanic eruptions that affected the Indian region and vicinity in the Indian Ocean are also presented.
