The Spatiotemporal Evolution and Trend Prediction of Ecological Wellbeing Performance in China

Abstract

Humans currently face a problematic ecological dilemma regarding economic growth. It is difficult to meet human needs by only studying economic growth created by artificial costs, and all countries need to pay attention to the task of improving the level of human welfare under the constraints of an ecological environment from the perspective of sustainable development. The focus of ecological wellbeing performance (EWP) is how to achieve the maximum welfare level output or achieve higher welfare level improvement with the fewest conversions of natural and ecological inputs. In this paper, we use the super-efficiency SBM model to measure the EWP of Chinese provinces and cities, traditional and spatial Markov probability transfer matrices are established based on time series analysis and spatial correlation analysis of the global Moran’s index, and the characteristics of the spatiotemporal variations of EWP are analyzed by comparing the matrices. The evolution trend for a certain future period is predicted, and the influences of geographical spatial patterns on the spatiotemporal evolution of EWP are discussed. On this basis, according to the calculation and analysis of the characteristics of China’s EWP, provinces and cities in China need to focus on improving their own resource utilization efficiency and strengthen environmental supervision to improve EWP. Finally, policy recommendations are put forward. First, special laws and regulations need to be introduced for resource utilization and ecological protection. The second recommendation is to promote and improve the mechanism of public participation in the rational utilization of resources and protection of the ecological environment. The third recommendation is to establish a dynamic monitoring system for resource utilization and ecological environmental protection. The fourth recommendation is to strengthen structural adjustment and accomplish high-quality economic development.

Keywords

• ecological wellbeing performance (EWP)
• super-efficiency SBM model
• markov state transferring matrix