PLoS ONE (Jan 2012)

Projecting range limits with coupled thermal tolerance - climate change models: an example based on gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus) along the U.S. east coast.

  • Jonathan A Hare,
  • Mark J Wuenschel,
  • Matthew E Kimball

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052294
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 7, no. 12
p. e52294

Abstract

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We couple a species range limit hypothesis with the output of an ensemble of general circulation models to project the poleward range limit of gray snapper. Using laboratory-derived thermal limits and statistical downscaling from IPCC AR4 general circulation models, we project that gray snapper will shift northwards; the magnitude of this shift is dependent on the magnitude of climate change. We also evaluate the uncertainty in our projection and find that statistical uncertainty associated with the experimentally-derived thermal limits is the largest contributor (∼ 65%) to overall quantified uncertainty. This finding argues for more experimental work aimed at understanding and parameterizing the effects of climate change and variability on marine species.