CD4 and viral load dynamics in antiretroviral-naïve HIV-infected adults from Soweto, South Africa: a prospective cohort.

Abstract

CD4 count is a proxy for the extent of immune deficiency and declines in CD4 count are a measure of disease progression. Decline in CD4 count is an important component: for estimating benefits of ARV treatment; for individual level counselling on the rapidity of untreated disease progression and prognosis; and can be used in planning demand for health services. Our objective is to report CD4 decline and changes in viral load (VL) in a group of HIV-infected adults enrolled in a randomized trial of preventive treatment for TB in South Africa where clade C infection predominates.HIV-infected, tuberculin skin test positive adults who were not eligible for antiretroviral (ARV) treatment were randomized to a trial of preventive treatment from 2003-2005. VL and CD4 count were assessed at enrollment and CD4 counts repeated at least annually. During follow-up, individuals whose CD4 counts decreased to 100,000 (N = 122) copies/ml.Our data suggests that six and a half years will elapse for an individual's CD4 count to decline from 750 to 350 cells/mm3 in the absence of ART.