Bus Ridership Prediction Based on Fixed-effects Model

Abstract

In order to predict the urban bus ridership more accurately, this study focuses on the impact of social and economic factors and the supply service level of buses on urban bus ridership. It also considers the competition and cooperation between bus and other modes of transportation. Ruling out the impact of the COVID-19, based on the panel data of 35 central cities in China from 2015 to 2019, a fixed-effects model for regression of panel data is established to predict urban bus ridership. In addition, the model application study reveals the importance of supply service level of buses to maintain bus ridership, but the increase of per capita income has an impact on the bus ridership.