IMPACTO DAS MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS NA PRODUTIVIDADE DO EUCALIPTO NA REGIÃO NORTE DO ESPÍRITO SANTO E SUL DA BAHIA

Abstract

Scenarios of climatic change linked to growth models based on ecophysiological processes may be useful to identify risks of serious consequence on the yield of planted forests, presenting the possibility to lessen the gravity of climatic change impacts and also to assess means of adaptation. The main objective of this paper is to analyze climatic change impacts on eucalyptus yield in Northern of Espirito Santo and Southern Bahia. The climate input data used in the 3-PG growth model were from two scenarios of climatic change (A2 and B2) from global model CCSR/NIES, for three periods of time: 2011 -2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. It was found that future climatic changes are most likely to decrease the eucalyptus yield, reaching a 40% reduction in scenario A2 for the 2071-2100 period and 24% for scenario B2. In spite of global models converging on the possible incremental temperatures, there is still skepticism about the change in precipitation, as well as the change in the frequency of climatic extremes, making it impossible to predict the true magnitude of eucalyptus yield losses.