Climate Services (Aug 2021)

Using co-production to improve the appropriate use of sub-seasonal forecasts in Africa

  • Linda Hirons,
  • Elisabeth Thompson,
  • Cheikh Dione,
  • Victor S. Indasi,
  • Mary Kilavi,
  • Elias Nkiaka,
  • Joshua Talib,
  • Emma Visman,
  • Elijah A. Adefisan,
  • Felipe de Andrade,
  • Jesse Ashong,
  • Jasper Batureine Mwesigwa,
  • Victoria L. Boult,
  • Tidiane Diédhiou,
  • Oumar Konte,
  • Masilin Gudoshava,
  • Chris Kiptum,
  • Richmond Konadu Amoah,
  • Benjamin Lamptey,
  • Kamoru Abiodun Lawal,
  • Richard Muita,
  • Richard Nzekwu,
  • Patricia Nying'uro,
  • Willis Ochieng,
  • Eniola Olaniyan,
  • Nana Kofi Opoku,
  • Hussen Seid Endris,
  • Zewdu Segele,
  • Pascal Moudi Igri,
  • Emmah Mwangi,
  • Steve Woolnough

Journal volume & issue
Vol. 23
p. 100246

Abstract

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Forecasts on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales have huge potential to aid preparedness and disaster risk reduction planning decisions in a variety of sectors. However, realising this potential depends on the provision of reliable information that can be appropriately applied in the decision-making context of users. This study describes the African SWIFT (Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques) forecasting testbed which brings together researchers, forecast producers and users from a range of African and UK institutions. The forecasting testbed is piloting the provision of real-time, bespoke S2S forecast products to decision-makers in Africa. Drawing on data from the kick-off workshop and initial case study examples, this study critically reflects on the co-production process. Specifically, having direct access to real-time data has allowed user-guided iterations to the spatial scale, timing, visualisation and communication of forecast products to make them more actionable for users. Some key lessons for effective co-production are emerging. First, it is critical to ensure there is sufficient resource to support co-production, especially in the early co-exploration of needs. Second, all the groups in the co-production process require capacity building to effectively work in new knowledge systems. Third, evaluation should be ongoing and combine meteorological verification with decision-makers feedback. Ensuring the sustainability of project-initiated services within the testbed hinges on integrating the knowledge-exchanges between individuals in the co-production process into shaping sustainable pathways for improved operational S2S forecasting within African institutions.

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