International Journal of General Medicine (2020-12-01)

MAGGIC Risk Model Predicts Adverse Events and Left Ventricular Remodeling in Non-Ischemic Dilated Cardiomyopathy

  • Dong Y,
  • Wang D,
  • Lv J,
  • Pan Z,
  • Xu R,
  • Ding J,
  • Cui X,
  • Xie X,
  • Guo X

Journal volume & issue
Vol. Volume 13
pp. 1477 – 1486

Abstract

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Yang Dong,* Dongfei Wang,* Jialan Lv, Zhicheng Pan, Rui Xu, Jie Ding, Xiao Cui, Xudong Xie, Xiaogang Guo Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Xiaogang GuoDepartment of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine, No. 79 Qing Chun Road, Hangzhou 310006, People’s Republic of ChinaTel + 86-13867441856Email [email protected]: We aimed to study the Meta-analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) risk model’s prognostic value and relationship with left ventricular remodeling in dilated cardiomyopathy.Patients and Methods: Dilated cardiomyopathy patients were prospectively recruited and underwent clinical assessments. MAGGIC risk score was calculated. Patients were followed up for adverse events and echocardiography. Primary endpoints were all-cause mortality and first rehospitalization due to heart failure. Secondary endpoint was left ventricular remodeling defined as a decline in left ventricular ejection fraction > 10% or an increase in left ventricular end-diastolic diameter > 10%. Survival status was examined using Cox regression analysis. The model’s ability to discriminate adverse events and left ventricular remodeling was calculated using a receiver operating characteristics curve.Results: In total, 114 patients were included (median follow-up time = 31 months). The risk score was independently related to adverse events (2-year all-cause mortality: hazard ratio [HR] = 1.122; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.043– 1.208; 1-year first rehospitalization due to heart failure: HR = 1.094; 95% CI, 1.032– 1.158; 2-year first rehospitalization due to heart failure: HR = 1.088; 95% CI, 1.033– 1.147, all P < 0.05). One-year change in left ventricular end-diastolic diameter was correlated with the risk score (r = 0.305, P = 0.002). The model demonstrated modest ability in discriminating adverse events and left ventricular remodeling (all areas under the curve were 0.6– 0.7).Conclusion: The MAGGIC risk score was related to adverse events and left ventricular remodeling in dilated cardiomyopathy.Keywords: dilated cardiomyopathy, left ventricular remodeling, prognosis, risk model

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