A Deep Learning Model and Its Application to Predict the Monthly MCI Drought Index in the Yunnan Province of China

Abstract

The Yunnan province of China is a typical humid region but with several severe region-wide droughts. Drought indices are generally used to identify and characterize drought events, and then play a key role in drought prediction. Therefore, a novel prediction model was proposed to predict a comprehensive drought indicator (meteorological composite index, MCI) in Yunnan province. This model combined the recurrent neural networks (RNN) based on a gated recurrent neural unit (GRU) and convolutional neural networks (CNN) with optimization using the modified particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. In this model, pre-processed predictor data were input into the GRU module to extract the time features of the sequences. Furthermore, the feature matrices were input into the CNN module to extract the deep local features and the inter-relationship of the predictors. The model was trained and used to predict the monthly MCI drought index of the representative five stations of Yunnan province from 1960 to 2020. The combined model was evaluated by comparison with traditional machine learning models such as the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and random forest (RF), and the traditional GRU model. The results show significantly improved skills in root mean square error, mean absolute error and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient. This novel method was valuable for the monthly drought prediction in Yunnan province and related climate-risk management.

Keywords

• monthly drought prediction
• Yunnan province
• deep learning
• convolutional neural network (CNN)
• gated recurrent neural network (GRU)
• modified particle swarm optimization (PSO)