Teorías del crecimiento cara a cara (Englobamiento estadístico: hacia una especificación general)

Abstract

Growth theories face to face (Statistical encompassing: towards a general specification) Our objective is to integrate in a general specification, using a single-equation and a multi-equation models, three constraints to economic growth currently facing the Mexican economy, among others. To achieve this, we strictly apply the principle of “statistical adequacy”, the “general to particular” methodology, and the “model selection” criteria. Our main contribution lies in the fact that we add, to the determinants suggested by neoclassical and by third-generation post-Keynesians, the restriction linked to the ecological footprint. At the same time, our main limitation is that we only incorporate two conventional hypotheses, that of Nobel Solow and that proposed by Thirlwall. A key conclusion is that, unlike restrictions on the supply and demand side, the restriction linked to the ecological footprint is “non-binding”, that is, it does not have correction mechanisms −neither automatic nor explicit in public policies− in order to stop the ecological overshoot.

Keywords

• teorías del crecimiento, pruebas de englobamiento, especificación general, huella ecológica