Simulation of permafrost changes on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China, over the past three decades

Abstract

Permafrost is one of the largest elements of the terrestrial cryosphere and is extremely sensitive to climate change. Based on mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) data from 189 boreholes on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), terrain factors, and climate data from China Meteorological Forcing Dataset, we propose a new mean annual ground air temperature (MAGAT) statistical model between meteorological parameters with subsurface temperatures to simulate permafrost distribution and variation of MAGT on the QTP over the past three decades (1981–2010). Validation of the model with MAGT data from 13 boreholes and permafrost maps of the QTP indicated that the MAGAT model is applicable to simulate the distribution and evolution of permafrost on the QTP. Simulation results show that the spatiotemporal MAGT of permafrost significantly increased by 0.37°C, or 0.25°C/10 yr, and the total area of permafrost decreased by 2.48 × 105 km2 on the QTP over the past three decades. Regionally, the changes of permafrost in the southwestern QTP were greater than other regions of the QTP.

Keywords

• the qinghai–tibet plateau
• permafrost changes
• mean annual air temperature
• mean annual ground temperature
• mean annual ground air temperature model