A Novel Statistical Method to Temporally Downscale Wind Speed Weibull Distribution Using Scaling Property

Abstract

To improve our capacity to use available wind speed data, it is necessary to develop a new statistical temporal downscaling method that uses one or a few input variables of any temporal scale for mean wind speed data to obtain wind statistics at finer temporal resolution. In the present study, a novel statistical temporal downscaling method for wind speed statistics and probability distribution is proposed. The proposed method uses the temporal structure to downscale the wind speed statistics to a fine temporal scale without the use of additional variables. The Weibull distribution of the hourly and 10-min mean wind speed data is obtained by the downscaled wind speed statistics. The proposed method provides the downscaled Weibull distribution of fine temporal wind speed data using coarse temporal wind statistics. Particularly, the use of sub-daily mean wind speed data in the downscaling of the wind speed Weibull distribution leads to good estimation precision. The Weibull distribution downscaled by the proposed method successfully reproduces the wind power density based on the wind potential energy estimation.

Keywords

• statistical temporal downscaling
• downscaling wind statistics
• Weibull distribution
• wind potential energy
• Weibull parameter estimation