Risk Level Assessment of Typhoon Hazard Based on Loss Utility

Abstract

In the context of climate change with frequent natural disasters, disaster risk assessment can provide great help for related risk decision-making. Based on the theory of loss expectation, this paper presents a quantitative method to assess typhoon disaster risk. Among them, the probability of typhoon occurrence is calculated by fitting the optimal structure function of the sample to the joint distribution of wave height, water increment and wind speed. Then, the loss expectation is expressed as the product of typhoon occurrence probability and loss utility, which is used to quantify the loss result of a typhoon disaster. Using the loss utility theory, the risk grade chart is drawn with the direct economic loss rate and the proportion of the affected population as indicators. The results show that the absolute loss value considering the loss utility is slightly higher than the loss value of the quantitative algorithm by 2% to 25%, indicating that the new model reflects the social group’s aversion to typhoon disaster risk. As can be seen from the risk level zoning map, the highest combined risk level typhoons are Prapiroon 0606 and Chanthu 1003, with a risk level of Category 5. The typhoon comprehensive risk level before 2011 was ≥3, and the typhoon comprehensive risk level from 2012 to 2015 was ≤3. The evaluation model has certain feasibility and practicability, and the results can provide a basis and reference for typhoon risk assessment and decision-making.

Keywords

• utility theory
• typhoon disaster
• risk assessment
• loss expectation
• three-dimensional joint distribution