Development of the world economy under the conditions of growing risks of global recession

Abstract

Considering the issue of recession, one can come to the conclusion that this concept arises consistently and is caused by many factors. At the moment, there is a very big dispute among many scientists regarding the probability of a global recession in the whole world. This is preceded by many factors, the main of which is Russia’s terrorism against Ukraine. This article is devoted to the study of the concept of «recession» and its causes. It also examines the concept of the «economic cycle» and examines the types of causes of recession. The reasons that can cause the current global recession are considered, including Russia’s war against Ukraine, the decision of OPEC+, which is reflected in the fall in oil prices, and the third factor is the fall of the world’s three largest economies. The impact of Russian aggression on the world economy is analyzed. Fluctuations in oil prices and peculiarities of the decisions taken by the Organization of Oil Exporting Countries have been studied. The article considers three largest economies of the world, the USA, the EU and China, their development at the current stage, the level of inflation and their reaction to a possible recession, the reasons that precede the occurrence of recession. Conclusions were made regarding the threats of recession for Ukraine, including the drop in prices for raw materials, the decrease in financial aid from other countries, and the decrease in foreign investments. Analyzing the probability of the onset of recession, you cannot get a 100 % result, but according to the assessment, even if it occurs, it will not be long enough and almost imperceptible to the population. Considering the Ukrainian economy specifically, the negative impact of the recession will be much less than that of the Russian invasion.

Keywords

• global recession
• world economy
• threats
• inflation
• gdp