Spatial and temporal distributions of temperature and rainfall on tropical islands of Vietnam

Abstract

This study presents the spatial-temporal distribution of temperature and rainfall on the tropical islands of Vietnam using observed data, and historical and future climate data extracted from the ACCESS-ESM1.5. Regarding spatial distribution, the average temperature increased from North to South while rainfall did not vary significantly. Regarding temporal distribution, this research employed the Mann–Kendall test at a 5% significance level to analyze the trend of climate change. According to the calculation result, only annual temperature tended to increase in all stations but at different rates. Other trends of climate change in maximum, temperature, minimum temperature, annual rainfall, and maximum 1-day rainfall are inconsistent and only found significant in islands with a long-observed period. Using 1970–2000 as the reference period with all R2 above 0.94, this research extracted and predicted climate trends in the period of 2021–2100 for areas above 1 km2 based on four scenarios which are SSP 1-2.6, SSP 2-4.5, SSP 3-7.0, and SSP 5-8.5. The projected maximum and minimum temperatures have shown increasing trends whereas the change in annual rainfall is not clear. The results of this study provide important implications for climate change adaptation scenarios and territorial planning of tropical islands. HIGHLIGHTS Determined the trend of climate change on the islands in the tropical monsoon region based on observed data.; Extracted and calculated temperature and rainfall for the islands until 2100 under four scenarios based on the latest climate change scenario published by the CMIP6.; Calculated and compared with the base scenario of 1981–2000 to determine the variation trend of temperature and rainfall in four periods until 2100.;

Keywords

• cmip6
• mann–kendall test
• spatial and temporal distribution
• trend and tropical islands