Subseasonal Variability of ENSO–East Asia Teleconnections Driven by Tropical Convection Over the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent

Abstract

Abstract The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a significant impact on the surface climate of East Asia by modulating the atmospheric circulation over the Kuroshio Extension. Here, we show that the ENSO–East Asia teleconnections are strongest in early winter due to the combined effects of the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent convections, but weakest in mid‐winter as these tropical convections weaken. During the early El Niño winter, convection is enhanced over the Indian Ocean and suppressed over the Maritime Continent. The associated Rossby wave trains constructively interfere over the Kuroshio Extension, resulting in anticyclonic circulation anomalies. The equatorial central Pacific convection has a minimal impact on the East Asia. This result suggests that the Indian Ocean and the Maritime Continent convections, rather than the equatorial central Pacific convection, are the precursors of the early winter ENSO–East Asia teleconnections, and need to be considered for subseasonal‐to‐seasonal prediction in East Asia.

Keywords

• ENSO‐East Asia teleconnections
• subseasonal variability
• constructive interference
• Maritime continent
• Indian Ocean
• subseasonal‐to‐seasonal prediction