Evolution of Synoptic Systems Associated with Lake-Effect Snow Events over Northwestern Pennsylvania

Abstract

This study investigates the synoptic conditions associated with lake-effect snow (LES) over northwestern Pennsylvania with a focus on classifying cases based on the tracks of cyclones influencing the region, including Nor’easters (NEs), Alberta Clippers (ACs), Colorado Lows (COs), and Great Lakes Lows (GLs). Synoptic composites were constructed using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) for all cases, as well as each cyclone group, using an LES repository spanning from 2006–2020. Additionally, 95 percent bootstrapped confidence intervals were created for each cyclone track to compare the initial mesoscale environmental properties (i.e., surface lake/air temperature and wind direction/speed) and LES impact (i.e., duration, maximum snowfall, and property damage). Synoptic composites of all LES cases exhibited an archetypal LES synoptic pattern consisting of an upper-level low geopotential height anomaly over the Hudson Bay and surface dipole structure centered across the Great Lakes basin. Regarding the different tracks, NEs and COs featured dynamic support in the form of enhanced turbulent mixing and synoptic vertical forcing, while ACs and GLs had greater thermodynamic support in the form of higher lapse rates and heightened heat and moisture fluxes. However, the bootstrapping analysis revealed minimal differences in LES impact between the cyclone types.

Keywords

• lake-effect
• synoptic
• mesoscale
• winter weather
• Great Lakes