THE MODEL OF BANKRUPTCY FORECASTING THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY AND AGRICULTURE

Abstract

Models based on the application of logit regression are constructed for the prediction of bankruptcy for the construction industry and the agricultural sector on the basis of performance accounted for by Russian legislation. Models predict bankruptcy of Russian companies spanning more than 80%. According to the study it was found that such factors as return on assets, the ratio of receivables to total assets, the availability of internal funds, margin costs, liquidity in mobilizing funds are universal in predicting bankruptcy and financial assessment industries of construction and agriculture (these figures are significant at the 5% significance level for both sectors).

Keywords

• bankruptcy of enterprise
• altman model
• predictive model
• predictive capability
• fulmer model
• fgd-model