Earthquake probability in the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan and people’s risk perceptions: the search for more effective expression

Abstract

Abstract This study summarizes the findings of an attitude survey focused on people’s perceptions of seismic hazard maps, which illustrate the risk of an earthquake in each location throughout Japan. These seismic hazard maps depict the likelihood of an earthquake with a seismic intensity of “6 Lower” or more within 30 years, with 3.0% being considered a high possibility. The 3.0% occurrence probability within 30 years can be reworded to 2.0% occurrence probability within 20 years, 0.1% occurrence probability within a year, 4.9% occurrence probability within 50 years, or 39.4% occurrence probability within 500 years when being converted according to a Poisson distribution. In this study, we convert the occurrence probability within 30 years in the seismic hazard maps to obtain that within a year up to that within 1000 years, present the involved risk and demonstrate the yearly probability of the people who see the maps becoming most convinced of the need for countermeasures. Although those are shorter than the occurrence probability within 30 years anyway, it is a characteristic that the peaks existed at the occurrence probability within 10–20 years, not at the occurrence probability within one year or five years. However, the results changed according to the age of the people viewing the maps, and it was when the risk was presented as the occurrence probabilities within 20 and 30 years for the people in their 20–40 s, while it was when the risk was presented the occurrence probabilities within 10 years for the people in their 50–60 s, the perception toward the need of countermeasures increased the most. In addition, regardless of gender and place of residence (coast of the Sea of Japan or the Pacific coast), the perception toward the need of countermeasures peaked at the occurrence probabilities within 10 and 20 years. Graphical Abstract

Keywords

• Earthquake
• The National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan
• Risk communication
• Probability
• Perception of risk
• Sea of Japan