Towards a Comprehensive Definition of Pandemics and Strategies for Prevention: A Historical Review and Future Perspectives

Abstract

The lack of a universally accepted definition of a pandemic hinders a comprehensive understanding of and effective response to these global health crises. Current definitions often lack quantitative criteria, rendering them vague and limiting their utility. Here, we propose a refined definition that considers the likelihood of susceptible individuals contracting an infectious disease that culminates in widespread global transmission, increased morbidity and mortality, and profound societal, economic, and political consequences. Applying this definition retrospectively, we identify 22 pandemics that occurred between 165 and 2024 AD and were caused by a variety of diseases, including smallpox (Antonine and American), plague (Justinian, Black Death, and Third Plague), cholera (seven pandemics), influenza (two Russian, Spanish, Asian, Hong Kong, and swine), AIDS, and coronaviruses (SARS, MERS, and COVID-19). This work presents a comprehensive analysis of past pandemics caused by both emerging and re-emerging pathogens, along with their epidemiological characteristics, societal impact, and evolution of public health responses. We also highlight the need for proactive measures to reduce the risk of future pandemics. These strategies include prioritizing surveillance of emerging zoonotic pathogens, conserving biodiversity to counter wildlife trafficking, and minimizing the potential for zoonotic spillover events. In addition, interventions such as promoting alternative protein sources, enforcing the closure of live animal markets in biodiversity-rich regions, and fostering global collaboration among diverse stakeholders are critical to preventing future pandemics. Crucially, improving wildlife surveillance systems will require the concerted efforts of local, national and international entities, including laboratories, field researchers, wildlife conservationists, government agencies and other stakeholders. By fostering collaborative networks and establishing robust biorepositories, we can strengthen our collective capacity to detect, monitor, and mitigate the emergence and transmission of zoonotic pathogens.

Keywords

• pandemics
• smallpox
• plague
• cholera
• influenza
• AIDS