Cyclic Model and Map for Estimating Predictive Potential of Prognostic-Planning Methodology Development

Abstract

The article states that in our country considerable experience has been gained in forecasting and planning work, the formation of which is based on certain methodological approaches that undergo transformation at different historical stages. The purpose of the article is to assess the features of the development of the forecasting and planning methodology of the domestic national economy in various historical periods of time.Based on the analysis of historical facts, the author’s expert assessment and graphic modeling techniques, a cyclic model and a map for assessing the predictive development potential of the forecasting and planning methodology of the domestic national economy are developed, which differs by identifying the stages in the development of forecasted and planned work depending on the nature of the obligatory execution, the depth of the impact of forecasts and plans for economic development, resource methods, predictability of the future.The results of the study can be applied in the activities of government to improve the quality of forecasting and planning work, to determine the turning points of phase shifts in the development of the forecasting and planning methodology.

Keywords

• methodology
• planning
• forecasting
• cyclic model
• predictive potential