Trends and Periodicities of Tropical Cyclone Frequencies and the Correlations with Ocean Drivers

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive analysis on the variations in the tropical cyclone (TC) frequencies during 1980–2021, including the linear trends, periodicities, and their variabilities on both global and basin-wise scales. An increasing trend in the annual number of global TCs is identified, with a significant rising trend in the numbers of tropical storms (maximum sustained wind 35 kts≤Umax64 kts) and intense typhoons (Umax≥96 kts) and a deceasing trend for weak typhoons (64 kts≤Umax96 kts). There is no statistically significant trend shown in the global Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). On a regional scale, the Western North Pacific (WNP) and Eastern North Pacific (ENP) are the regions of the first- and second-largest numbers of TCs, respectively, while the increased TC activity in the North Atlantic (NA) contributes the most to the global increase in TCs. It is revealed in the wavelet transformation for periodicity analysis that the variations in the annual number of TCs with different intensities mostly show an inter-annual period of 3–7 years and an inter-decadal one of 10–13 years. The inter-annual and inter-decadal periods are consistent with those in the ENSO-related ocean drivers (via the Niño 3.4 index), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index. The inter-decadal variation in 10–13 years is also observed in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) index and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index, on the other hand, present the same inter-annual period of 7–10 years as that in the frequencies of all the named TCs in the NA. Further, the correlations between TC frequencies and ocean drivers are also quantified using the Pearson correlation coefficient. These findings contribute to an enhanced understanding of TC activity, thereby facilitating efforts to predict particular TC activity and mitigate the inflicted damage.

Keywords

• tropical cyclone
• long-term trend
• periodicity
• ocean variability
• ocean hazard