Exploring the Relationship Between Very-High-Resolution Satellite Imagery Data and Fruit Count for Predicting Mango Yield at Multiple Scales

Abstract

Tree- and block-level prediction of mango yield is important for farm operations, but current manual methods are inefficient. Previous research has identified the accuracies of mango yield forecasting using very-high-resolution (VHR) satellite imagery and an ’18-tree’ stratified sampling method. However, this approach still requires infield sampling to calibrate canopy reflectance and the derived block-level algorithms are unable to translate to other orchards due to the influences of abiotic and biotic conditions. To better appreciate these influences, individual tree yields and corresponding canopy reflectance properties were collected from 2015 to 2021 for 1958 individual mango trees from 55 orchard blocks across 14 farms located in three mango growing regions of Australia. A linear regression analysis of the block-level data revealed the non-existence of a universal relationship between the 24 vegetation indices (VIs) derived from VHR satellite data and fruit count per tree, an outcome likely due to the influence of location, season, management and cultivar. The tree-level fruit count predicted using a random forest (RF) model trained on all calibration data produced a percentage root mean squared error (PRMSE) of 26.5% and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 48 fruits/tree. The lowest PRMSEs produced from RF-based models developed from location, season and cultivar subsets at the individual tree level ranged from 19.3% to 32.6%. At the block level, the PRMSE for the combined model was 10.1% and the lowest values for the location, seasonal and cultivar subset models varied between 7.2% and 10.0% upon validation. Generally, the block-level predictions outperformed the individual tree-level models. Maps were produced to provide mango growers with a visual representation of yield variability across orchards. This enables better identification and management of the influence of abiotic and biotic constraints on production. Future research could investigate the causes of spatial yield variability in mango orchards.

Keywords

• mango (<i>Mangifera indica</i> L.) fruit count
• vegetation indices (VIs)
• machine learning
• random forest
• satellite imagery
• yield prediction