DYNAMICS AND ECOLOGICAL VULNERABILITY OF THE SIERRA DEL TENTZO STATE RESERVE, MEXICO

Abstract

Background: Knowledge and evaluation of ecological changes in Protected Natural Areas is important for their planning and management. The use of tools such as land use change prediction models and satellite image analysis are low-cost and high-precision alternatives that can contribute to this purpose. Objective: Estimate the trend of land use change and vulnerability of the ecosystems of the Sierra del Tentzo State Reserve (REST), Mexico. Methodology: The REST sites with the highest probability of change in their ecosystems were identified according to phases of the adaptive cycles of the Panarchy theory; the use of Landsat images to classify land use and vegetation types, and the identification of areas of greatest vulnerability with a Markov chain model. Results: The trend of change from a state of conservation to a state of growth predominates in the reserve, which indicates a deterioration of the ecosystems with primary vegetation that are being transformed into grasslands and crop areas. While, in the future projection, the areas with greater ecological vulnerability are grouped in a pattern associated with human settlements in population centers. Implications: The study was on a regional scale, so changes and vulnerability at the local level were not explored. Conclusion: In the Sierra del Tentzo State Reserve there is a process of ecosystem degradation and some areas, particularly those most susceptible to human activities, are more vulnerable to this degradation. These areas should be considered in the reserve management program as priority attention.

Keywords

• áreas naturales protegidas
• cadenas de markov
• ciclos adaptativos
• ecosistemas
• estado de conservación.