The Covid-pandemic has ended. Again.

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to discuss the evolving interpretations of the Covid crisis and its impact on hospitality and tourism. Design/methodology/approach – Scenario planning paper following Framework Foresight about the Covid pandemic and its impact on hospitality and tourism. Research input was gathered from research reports in different disciplines and discussions with an expert panel. Findings – The paper argues that hypothesized recovery scenarios were founded on hope and inaccurate extrapolations, and that hospitality and tourism may head for permanently lower volumes. Research limitations/implications – The paper contributes to the debate on tourism resilience and hopeful visions of a sustainable restart. Practical implications – Instead of just focusing on direct pandemic impact and that of governmental measures, a third variable of consumer confidence will be decisive, and more important than expected by many initially, in future scenarios for hospitality and tourism. Originality/value – The proposed scenarios that were designed with executive level industry input have so far proven more realistic than prevalent views of a swift recovery.

Keywords

• Crisis management
• Scenario planning
• Strategic foresight
• Covid-19
• Business recovery
• Tourism resilience