Assessing Suitable Areas of Common Grapevine (<i>Vitis vinifera</i> L.) for Current and Future Climate Situations: The CDS Toolbox SDM

Abstract

Climate Data Science (CDS) Toolbox Species Distribution Model (SDM) aims identifying the suitable areas for species, community of species and landscape units. This model is based on the use of 23 variables available over the Internet, for which any assumptions are formulated about their relationships with the spatial distribution of species. The application of CDS Toolbox SDM on the assessment of the potential impact of two scenarios of climate change (Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP6.0) on the suitability of grapevine crops in France shows a general decrease of the most suitable areas for grapevine crops between 41% and 83% towards 2070 according to the current location of the vineyard parcels. The results underline a potential shift of the suitable areas in northern part of the French territory. They also show a potential shift of the most suitable areas in altitude (60 m in average) for RCP6.0 scenario. Finally, the model shows that RCP4.5 scenario should be more drastic than RCP6.0 scenario by 2050 and 2070. In effect, the model underlines a significant potential decrease of cultivated crops in the areas of high probably of suitable areas, according to the baseline scenario. This decrease would be of 630,000 ha for 2070 RCP4.5 scenario and 330,000 ha for 2070 RCP6.0 scenario.

Keywords

• species distribution model
• climate change
• scenarios
• GIS
• ecological niche
• grapevine