Multi-Objective Interval Prediction of Load Based on the Conditional Copula Function

Abstract

Compared with the point prediction, the interval prediction of the load could more effectively guarantee the safe operation of the power system. In view of the problem that the correlation between adjacent load data is not fully utilized so that the prediction accuracy is reduced, this paper proposes the conditional copula function interval prediction method, which could make full use of the correlation relationship between adjacent load data so as to obtain the interval prediction result. At the same time, there are the different prediction results of the method under different parameters, and the evaluation results of the two accuracy evaluation indicators containing PICP (prediction interval coverage probability) and the PIAW (prediction interval average width) are inconsistent, the above result that the optimal parameters and prediction results cannot be obtained, therefore, the NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II) multi-objective optimization algorithm is proposed to seek out the optimal solution set, and by evaluating the solution set, obtain the optimal prediction model parameters and the corresponding prediction results. Finally, the proposed method is applied to the three regions of Shaanxi Province, China to conduct ultra-short-term load prediction, and compare it with the commonly used load interval prediction method such as Gaussian process regression (GPR) algorithm, artificial neural network (ANN), extreme learning machine (ELM) and others, and the results show that the proposed method always has better prediction accuracy when applying it to different regions.

Keywords

• load prediction
• interval prediction
• conditional copula function
• multi-objective optimization algorithm