Viruses (Dec 2021)

Symptom-Based Predictive Model of COVID-19 Disease in Children

  • Jesús M. Antoñanzas,
  • Aida Perramon,
  • Cayetana López,
  • Mireia Boneta,
  • Cristina Aguilera,
  • Ramon Capdevila,
  • Anna Gatell,
  • Pepe Serrano,
  • Miriam Poblet,
  • Dolors Canadell,
  • Mònica Vilà,
  • Georgina Catasús,
  • Cinta Valldepérez,
  • Martí Català,
  • Pere Soler-Palacín,
  • Clara Prats,
  • Antoni Soriano-Arandes,
  • the COPEDI-CAT Research Group

DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/v14010063
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 14, no. 1
p. 63

Abstract

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Background: Testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is neither always accessible nor easy to perform in children. We aimed to propose a machine learning model to assess the need for a SARS-CoV-2 test in children (® registry. Overall, 4434 SARS-CoV-2 tests were performed in symptomatic children between 1 November 2020 and 31 March 2021, 784 were positive (17.68%). We pre-processed the data to be suitable for a machine learning (ML) algorithm, balancing the positive-negative rate and preparing subsets of data by age. We trained several models and chose those with the best performance for each subset. Results: The use of ML demonstrated an AUROC of 0.65 to predict a COVID-19 diagnosis in children. The absence of high-grade fever was the major predictor of COVID-19 in younger children, whereas loss of taste or smell was the most determinant symptom in older children. Conclusions: Although the accuracy of the models was lower than expected, they can be used to provide a diagnosis when epidemiological data on the risk of exposure to COVID-19 is unknown.

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