Analysis of the Disease Burden Trends and Death Projections for Esophageal Cancer Attributable to Tobacco in China from 1990 to 2019

Abstract

Background The disease burden of esophageal cancer is high in China, more and more studies have shown that tobacco has a greater adverse effect on the development of esophageal cancer. Objective To understand trends in esophageal cancer deaths and burden of disease attributable to tobacco in China from 1990 to 2019, and provide data to inform the development of public health policies and interventions. Methods Global burden of disease 2019 (GBD 2019) data were used to extract the age-specific and sex-specific data on esophageal cancer deaths attributable to tobacco in China from 1990 to 2019. Mortality, disability adjusted life years (DALYs) , years of life lost (YLLs) , and disability adjusted life years (YLDs) were used to assess the disease burden of esophageal cancer attributable to tobacco in China. Joinpoint regression software and age-period-cohort modeling methods were applied to analyze the trends of disease burden and mortality with age, period and cohort. the Bayesian-period-cohort analysis (BAPC) was applied to predict the mortality rate of esophageal cancer attributable to tobacco in China from 2020 to 2030. Results From 1990 to 2019, the number of deaths caused by esophageal cancer attributable to tobacco among Chinese residents rose from 76 400 to 123 900, with an increase of 62.17%, and the standardized mortality rate declined from 9.30/100 000 to 6.20/100 000, with a decrease of 33.33%; the DALYs rose from 1 972 500 person-years to 2 822 600 person-years, with an increase of 43.10%, and the DALYs rate decreased from 220.50/100 000 to 134.47/100 000, with a decrease of 39.02%. In terms of gender, the disease burden of esophageal cancer attributable to tobacco was mainly caused by males, with 117 700 deaths and a standardized mortality rate of 12.82/100 000 in 2019 due to tobacco-attributable esophageal cancer in males, compared to 0.62 million deaths number and a standardized mortality rate of 0.63/100 000 in females. In 2019, the number of esophageal cancer deaths attributable to tobacco among Chinese residents peaked in the age group of >69-74 years, while DALYs peaked in the age group of >64-69 years, at 23 000 and 510 300 cases, respectively. The mortality rate continued to increase with age, especially after 50 years of age. The results of Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the average annual percent change (AAPC) of esophageal cancer mortality attributable to tobacco was -1.4%〔95%CI (-1.6%, -1.2%) 〕 in China from 1990 to 2019, with -3.3%〔95%CI (-3.6%, -2.9%) 〕 for females, and -1.3%〔95%CI (-1.4%, -1.1%) 〕 for males; the AAPC for DALYs rate was -1.7%〔95%CI (-1.9%, -1.5%) 〕, with -3.7%〔95%CI (-4.0%, -3.4%) 〕 for females and -1.5%〔95%CI (-1.7%, -1.3%) 〕 for males. Analysis of the age-period-cohort model of mortality from esophageal cancer attributable to tobacco showed a negative net offset of -1.690%〔95%CI (-2.024%, -1.354%) 〕. It is expected that the number of deaths and mortality rate from tobacco-attributable esophageal cancer among Chinese residents will be relatively stable with a small decrease from 2020 to 2030, with mortality rates declining from 12.64/100 000 in 2020 to 12.63/100 000 in 2030 for males, and from 0.6/100 000 in 2020 to 0.46/100 000 for females. Conclusion Mortality rate and DALYs rate due to tobacco-attributable esophageal cancer among Chinese residents increased and then declined from 1990 to 2019. The burden of disease due to tobacco-attributable esophageal cancer is mainly caused by males in term of gender, by middle-aged and elderly people by age, which should be given sufficient attention. It is expected that the number of deaths and mortality rates from tobacco-attributable esophageal cancer will be stable and slightly decreasing from 2020 to 2030.

Keywords

• esophageal neoplasms|smoking|mortality|disability-adjusted life years|burden of illness|bayesian age-period-cohort analysis