Norm-dist Monte-Carlo integrative method for the improvement of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process

Abstract

This paper presents the novel approach of the Norm-dist Monte-Carlo fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (NMCFAHP) to incorporate probabilistic and epistemic uncertainty due to human's judgment vagueness in multi-criteria decision analysis. Normal distribution is applied as the most appropriate distribution model to approximate the probability distribution function of the criteria and alternatives within Monte-Carlo simulation. To test the applicability of the proposed NMCFAHP, the case study of non-destructive test (NDT) technology selection is performed in the Petroleum Company in Borneo, Indonesia. When compared with the conventional triangular fuzzy-AHP, the proposed NMCFAHP method reduces the standard error of mean values by 90.4–99.8% at the final evaluation scores. This means that the proposed NMCFAHP significantly involves fewer errors when dealing with fuzzy uncertainty and stochastic randomness. The proposed NMCFAHP delivers reliable performance to overcome probabilistic uncertainty and epistemic vagueness in the group decision making process.

Keywords

• Mathematics
• Normal distribution fuzzy number
• Monte-carlo simulation
• Integrative method of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process
• Multi-criteria decision making